In the news this week. Moussa Kouossa, the Libyan foreign minister, until his recent defection to Britain, says Libya is turning into “a new Somalia.”  A Libya mired in civil war would not be considered a “win” by the Obama administration, and indeed could prove to be a “distraction” for many years to come.

Libya has always looked more like a civil war than a revolution — the country is tribal and divided (Afghanistan?). I allowed myself to be optimistic after a few high-level defections from Qaddafi’s administration (including Mr. Kouossa), but now it appears that the defectors’ motives may have been trying to save their own hides for fear they would be tried for war crimes, rather than defecting to delegitimize Qaddafi and save Libya.

I was particularly bothered by a recent report from Libya in which a reporter talked about the “ragtag rebels,” saying they come out to fight after their breakfast, and they stop fighting to go home for dinner. This does not sound like people who are committed to a cause. Revolutions need people that are willing to die, and these people don’t even want to miss a meal! The Libyan Rebels, the French, and Great Britain are all looking to the U.S. to do more of the work — this should not be a surprise to anyone.

With so much global conflict, joining the Libyan cause for purely humanitarian reasons creates many challanges: Mr. Obama stated that Arab League approval was instrumental in his decision to go ahead with the no-fly zone.  Now, with hostilities between Israel and Gaza, the Arab League wants a no–fly zone over Gaza — a big problem for Obama and a good example of unintended consequences.

Egypt’s revolution, on the other hand, was organic, focused, and resolute. They were prepared to do what they had to do to free themselves.  They may have wanted U.S. help but they didn’t stand around waiting for it.  Now that Mubarak is gone, Egypt needs help to move in the right direction.  I would argue that any U.S. support should come in the form of private investment and not military intervention.  Private sector assistance should be facilitated by government encouragement — trade agreements, tax incentives and diplomacy.  Having the eyes of the world on Egypt would help keep extremist factions in check.

War is ugly whether you engage unilaterally or multilaterally, and regardless of motivation – strategic or humanitarian.  With a huge deficit problem and a populace that is war-weary, America has to be very careful where we engage. Americans hate the war in Iraq but it may turn out to be a serendipity for Mr. Bush.  A few experts have suggested that the Arab push for democracy is a result of Iraq:  They held free elections in 2005 and 2010 with huge turnouts. After the last election it took months to form a coalition, but they did it.

As American troops get ready to make their final exit from Iraq, the new Iraqi government is preparing Saddam Hussein’s old Republican Palace for an Arab League summit — the Iraqis are ready and proud to take a leadership position.  Iraq has a long way to go, but it could turn out to be a worthwhile distraction.  If they continue to work together to build a democracy they could someday be chasing Turkey as a country that makes Islam and democracy equal economic opportunity.

Libya, I fear, is a distraction that may cost Egypt that same opportunity

“As Libya turns increasingly violent, Mr. Obama should continue to champion freedom and democracy but let, in fact encourage, the Arab world to step-in to prevent any violence.  This is an inflection point: Islam is due for a revolution, an enlightenment, indeed a trip to modernity, but America can not force it, it has to come from within.”

A mere eleven days later the United States had built an impressive coalition — France and Great Britain were “leading” the charge, the Arab league was on board, and surprisingly, Russia and China had abstained, rather than objected when a resolution to enforce a no fly zone over Libya was voted on at the U.N. Security Council. On Saturday missiles flew and bombs were dropped.

Clearly, Mr. Obama does not read Qmuze.

By Monday the Arab League was backtracking, the Allies were arguing, and Putin was comparing the West to “medieval crusaders.” Obama was in South America trying to take the focus off of the United States — a well-intentioned  effort to change our world-reputation for the better, and to get would-be terrorist off our scent. Instead, his efforts came across more like a small child that plays hide and seek by covering his own face in hopes that he can’t be seen. Everyone, including the terrorists, knows that America is the country that will do the heavy lifting, spend the most money, and suffer the most blame for anything that goes wrong.

Winning has not been defined: the United Nations says the mission is humanitarian — to prevent civilian deaths; the U.S. says Qaddafi must go. (Note: If your mission is not clearly defined it becomes very difficult to have an exit stategy.) No one knows what will happen if Qaddafi barricades himself in his bunker with his billions, or if he does go, who will lead Libya.  No doubt that it would be hard to replace Qaddafi with someone more evil, but it’s important to note that Libya is tribal and there’s a good chance that civil war would continue without him.

Will the U.S. back the civilian uprisings in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Yemen?  The Saudis feed our oil habit, our Navy’s fifth fleet is strategically located in Bahrain, and the government of Yemen has helped us fight terrorism — the U.S. government does not want to bump up against the governments of these countries. This begs the question: Can military intervention be considered humanitarian if it is applied unevenly?

My grandfather once told me a story about coming out of a movie theater to find a man beating a woman that appeared to be his wife or girlfriend.  The women writhed on the ground as the man kicked and punched her.  My grandfather pulled the man off of the woman and warned him not to touch her again. He then went over to the woman, helped her up and offered her his starched and monogrammed handkerchief.  She wiped the blood from her face, drew back and punched my grandfather  in his eye, and then walked off with the man that had beaten her.

The moral of the story: Helping the rebels in Libya fend off a madman may look like the humanitarian thing to do, but in the end, all we may have to show for our good deed is a big, black eye.